- We frequently hear in the media comments about how climate change is making extreme weather events worse as well as how human activity is affecting our changing climate.
- Comments about recent bushfires, floods, coral bleaching, tropical storms and polar ice melt events are often stated as being made worse by human caused climate change
- But what is the veracity of these claims given extreme weather events are inherently variable and other natural factors influence climate change.
- In relatively recent times scientists have adopted and applied the concept of ‘attribution’ to specific weather events and future climate projections.
- In this context attribution science attempts to determine the extent that human activity has contributed to severe weather events and climate change.
- Using climate models, attribution science attempts to determine how the severity of an event or future climate projections has/will be changed by human impacts.
- Following are links to several articles and a nine minute video on the subjects of attribution science and climate modelling.
- If time permits, we could also consider the latest ‘headline statements from the IPCC working Group 111 – Mitigation of Climate Change. A link to these statements also follows.
Colombia University – Attribution science : https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/10/04/attribution-science-linking-climate-change-to-extreme-weather/
Verisk - Attribution Science: https://www.air-worldwide.com/publications/air-currents/2020/the-new-science-of-event-attribution/
CSIRO ECOS – Climate change attribution to severe weather events: https://ecos.csiro.au/climate-change-attribution/
Pacific Institute for climate solutions - climate models video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkcrH9tYv8g
MIT – What are climate models: https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/climate-models
BOM’s climate models - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/model/access.shtml
IPCC working group 111 headline statements from the April 2022 report: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/resources/spm-headline-statements/